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Tuesday, March 20, 2012
Loans For Underwater Homeowners : HARP 2.0 Now Available
The new, revamped HARP program is now available in WA and nationwide. It was officially released Saturday, March 17, 2012 by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
HARP is an acronym. It stands for Home Affordable Refinance Program. HARP is the conforming mortgage loan product meant for "underwater homeowners". Under the HARP program, homeowners in Spokane can get access to today's low mortgage rates despite having little or no equity whatsoever.
HARP is expected to reach up to 6 million U.S. homeowners who would otherwise be unable to refinance.
HARP is not a new program. It was originally launched in 2009. However, the program's first iteration reached fewer than 1 million U.S. households because loan risks were high for banks, and loan costs were high for consumers.
With HARP's re-release -- dubbed HARP 2.0 -- the government removed many of HARP's hurdles.
In order to qualify for HARP, homeowners must first meet 3 qualifying criteria.
First, their current mortgage must be backed either Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Loans backed by the FHA or VA are ineligible, as are loans backed by private entities. This means jumbo loans and most loans from community banks cannot be refinanced via HARP.
- To check if your loan is Fannie Mae-backed, click here.
- To check if your loan is Freddie Mac-backed, click here.
The second qualification standard for HARP is that all loans to be refinanced must have been securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac prior to June 1, 2009. Mortgages securitized on, or after, June 1, 2009 are HARP-ineligible.
There are no exceptions to this rule.
And, lastly, the third HARP qualification standard is that the existing mortgage must be accompanied by a strong repayment history. Homeowners must have made the last 6 mortgage payments on-time, and may not have had more than one 30-day late within the last 12 months.
If the above three qualifiers are met, HARP applicants will find mortgage guidelines lenient overall :
- Refinancing into a fixed rate mortgage allows for unlimited loan-to-value
- The standard 7-year "waiting period" after a foreclosure is waived in full
- Except in rare cases, home appraisals aren't required for HARP
Furthermore, HARP mortgage rates are on par with non-HARP rates. This means that HARP applicants get access to the same mortgage rates and loan fees as non-HARP applicants. There's no "penalty" for using HARP.
To apply for HARP, check with your loan officer today.
Monday, March 19, 2012
How To Store Your Winter Clothes For The Summer Season
As the Spokane weather turns warmer and the days grow longer, it's time to pack away your winter clothes to make room for spring and summer things -- just make sure to store your cold-weather clothes properly.
They'll look better, wear longer, and will be ready to go when winter rolls around again next year.
Here's what to do.
First, you'll want to launder your winter clothes before you pack them up -- even if they were never worn and/or don't appear to be soiled. Clothes can sometimes have spots or stains that aren't readily visible. Use unscented detergents, and skip fabric softeners and other additives that could attract insects.
Take items that can't be washed to the dry cleaner.
Next, you'll put your clothes into storage containers. Ideally, use bags or boxes that won't degrade and will seal out dirt, dust, insects and moisture.
Fold clothing neatly before adding it to the container and pack "loosely", allowing air can circulate. Tuck a lavender or cedar sachet into each container to help repel bugs. Both lavender and cedar are safer for use than mothballs and they smell much better.
For bulky items such as coats, use padded hangers and cover the clothing with heavy plastic wardrobe bags. If you don't have padded hangers and don't want to buy them, drape wood hangers with folded towels to fill in the shoulders of your coats without stretching them.
Keep the storage boxes and hangers in a dry place, away from sunlight. Sunlight can fade your fabrics.
Then, make sure to clean your closets thoroughly before filling them with the next season's clothes. Dust the shelves and ceiling, wipe bars and flat surfaces, and give the floor a good vacuum.
Your closet will be clean and fresh and ready for the new season.
Friday, March 16, 2012
Foreclosure Volume Slated To Rise This Spring
After a series of months during which foreclosure volume was low, total filings have started to rise again, says RealtyTrac.
In February, 21 states posted a year-over-year increase in monthly foreclosure filings, according to the national foreclosure-tracking firm. This is nearly twice as many states as compared to December 2011, marking the highest monthly reading since November 2010.
A "foreclosure filing" is defined to include any one of the following foreclosure-related events : (1) The serving of a default notice, (2) A scheduled home auction, or (3) A bank repossession.
Nationally, the number of foreclosure filings fell 2 percent from January. However, it's a trend that may reverse. Foreclosure volume is expected to rise over the next few months.
This is because the $25 billion mortgage servicer settlement provides a framework for servicers to execute necessary foreclosures, from notice-to-auction. Some analysts believe that foreclosure filings were artificially depressed in 2011 because of the absence of such guidance.
Like all things in real estate, though, foreclosures remain local.
For example, nationally, there was one foreclosure for every 637 housing units. On a state-by-state basis, however, the results looked different.
- Nevada : 1 foreclosure for every 278 housing units
- California : 1 foreclosure for every 283 housing units
- Arizona : 1 foreclosure for every 312 housing units
- Georgia : 1 foreclosure for every 331 housing units
- Florida : 1 foreclosure for every 341 housing units
Even on a city-by-city level, foreclosure concentration varied. Figures from several select cities include :
- Atlanta : 1 foreclosure for every 244 housing units
- Chicago : 1 foreclosure for every 302 housing units
- New York : 1 foreclosure for every 3,439 housing units
- Seattle : 1 foreclosure for every 1,229 housing units
- Washington : 1 foreclosure for every 1,198 housing units
One reason why foreclosure concentration is worth tracking is because homes in various stage of foreclosure are often sold at deep discounts as compared to similar, non-distressed homes. It's no wonder foreclosed homes are in high demand among today's Spokane home buyers.
However, if you plan to buy a foreclosure in WA , be sure to work with an experienced real estate agent. Foreclosed homes are often sold "as-is", and may be defective at best and uninhabitable at worst. It makes good sense to have an advocate on your side to help with contracts and inspections.
Thursday, March 15, 2012
Mortgage Rates Climb Sharply After Retail Sales Report
The U.S. economy is expanding, fueled by a renewed consumer optimism and increased consumer spending.
As reported by the Census Bureau, Retail Sales in February, excluding cars and auto parts, rose 1 percent to $335 billion as 11 of 13 retail sectors showed improvement last month.
February markets the 19th time in twenty months that U.S. Retail Sales increased on a month-over-month basis.
Unfortunately, what's good for the economy may be bad for Spokane home buyers and mortgage rate shoppers. Home affordability is expected to worsen as the U.S. economy improves.
The connection between Retail Sales and home affordability is indirect, but noteworthy -- especially given today's broader market conditions.
First, let's talk about affordability.
Last week, the National Association of REALTORS® released its monthly Housing Affordability Index, showing that homes are more affordable to everyday home buyers than at any time in recorded history. For buyers with median earnings buying median-priced homes, monthly payments now comprise just 12.1% of the monthly household income.
The real estate trade group considers 25% to be the benchmark for home affordability. Today's payment levels are less than half of that.
The reasons why today's homes are so affordable are three-fold :
- Home prices remain relatively low as compared to peak pricing
- Fixed- and adjustable-rate mortgage rates remain near all-time lows
- Average earnings are increasing nationwide
Rising Retail Sales, however, can derail the trend. This is because Retail Sales measures consumer spending and consumer spending accounts for roughly 70 percent of the U.S. economy. As the economy expands, the forces that combined to raise home affordability so high begin to wane.
First, in a recovering economy, mortgage rates tend to rise and, throughout 2012 and 2013, home prices are expected do the same. Second, as average earnings increase, it can spur inflation which is bad for mortgage rates, too.
Home affordability is at all-time highs today. But, in part because of February's Retail Sales data, we should not expect these levels to last. Mortgage rates are higher by 1/4 percent since the Retail Sales data was released -- roughly $16 per $100,000 borrowed -- and are expected to rise more throughout the spring home purchase season.
Retail Sales are up 6 percent from a year ago.
Tuesday, March 13, 2012
A Simple Explanation Of The Federal Reserve Statement (March 13, 2012)
Tuesday, the Federal Open Market Committee voted to leave the Fed Funds Rate unchanged within its current target range of 0.000-0.250 percent.
For the fourth consecutive month, the Fed Funds Rate vote was nearly unanimous. Just one FOMC member dissented in the 9-1 vote.
The Fed Funds Rate has been near zero percent since December 2008. It is expected to remain near-zero through 2014, at least.
In its press release, the Federal Reserve noted that the the U.S. economy has "expanded moderately" since the FOMC's January 2012 meeting, adding that growth is occurring despite "strains in the global financial markets" that pose "significant downside risks" to long-term outlooks.
The Federal Reserve now expects moderate economic expansion through the next few quarters and a gradual easing in the national Unemployment Rate.
The Fed also noted that :
- The housing sector remains "depressed"
- Labor conditions have "improved further"
- Household spending has "continued to advance"
With respect to inflation, the Fed said that rising oil and gasoline prices will "push up" inflation temporarily, but not over the long-term.
At its meeting, the Federal Reserve neither introduced new economic stimulus, nor discontinued existing market programs. The Fed re-affirmed its intentions to hold the Fed Funds Rate at "exceptionally low" levels through late-2014, and to buy mortgage-backed bonds in the open market.
Immediately following the FOMC's statement, mortgage markets worsened slightly, pressuring mortgage rates higher in and around Spokane.
The FOMC's next scheduled meeting is a two-day event slated for April 24-25, 2012.
The Fed Meets Today : Protecting Your Housing Payment
The Federal Open Market Committee meets today, its second of 8 scheduled meetings this year. As a home buyer or would-be refinancing household , get ready for changing mortgage rates.
The Federal Open Market Committee is the 12-person sub-committee within the Federal Reserve that votes on the nation's monetary policy. Led by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, the FOMC's most prominent role is as steward for the Fed Funds Rate.
The Fed has said repeatedly that it intends to keep the Fed Funds Rate near 0.000 for an "extended period of time", through 2014 at least.
Unfortunately, this doesn't mean that Spokane mortgage rates will remain low as well. Mortgage rates are not set by the Federal Open Market Committee. Mortgage rates are set by Wall Street.
As proof that the Fed Funds Rate is distinct from mortgage rates, consider that, since 2000, the difference between the Fed Funds Rate and the average, 30-year fixed rate mortgage rate has been as wide as 5.25% and as narrow at 0.50%.
If the Fed Funds Rate was tied to mortgage rates, the chart at right would be linear.
That said, the FOMC can influence mortgage rates.
After its meetings, the FOMC issues a standard press release to the public which reflects the group's overall economic outlook. When the FOMC statement is generally "positive", mortgage rates tend to rise in response. This is because investors often assume more risk in an improving economy and this can harm bond market prices -- including those for mortgage-backed bonds.
Conversely, when the Fed is generally negative in its statement, mortgage rates can improve.
Since the FOMC's last meeting, there has been little about which to be negative with the U.S. economy. Housing and manufacturing are improving; employment is higher; and global markets are regaining their respective footing. The Fed may make note of it. Or, it may not.
Regardless, mortgage rates are expected to move so consider locking your mortgage rate ahead of today's 2:15 PM ET statement.
There too much risk in floating.
Monday, March 12, 2012
How To Remove Soap Scum From Shower Doors
Dirty shower doors can ruin an otherwise sparkling-clean bathroom. The soap scum that accumulates isn't just unsightly; it contains body oils and skin particles that provide for a perfect bacteria breeding ground.
Supermarket shelves in Spokane are filled with bathroom cleaners that promise to cut through soap scum, but the cleansers don't always work and those that do often contain harsh chemicals that can irritate your skin.
Cleaning shower doors can be more safe and more pleasant, then, when you use chemical-free household products, many of which you likely have in your kitchen already.
White vinegar makes an excellent soap scum remover, for example.
To remove soap scum from your shower doors using white vinegar, pour non-diluted white vinegar into a spray bottle, and then spray your shower doors until the soap-scummy sections are completely saturated. Let the vinegar sit for several minutes. This allows the white vinegar time begin breaking down the soap scum.
Spritz the surface again, if necessary, to keep the surface wet.
After the white vinegar has had some time to work, wipe the soap scum away with a non-scratching sponge.
If the soap scum is particularly stubborn, cutting through it completely may require a mild abrasive.
After letting the vinegar soak for several minutes, sprinkle baking powder on your sponge and remove the soap scum using a moderate amount of pressure and small circular motions. If your shower doors are textured, you may need to switch to a scrub brush to get into the crevasses.
Reapply baking soda and re-spritz the doors with vinegar as needed to remove the soap scum completely. Then, just rinse away the residue with hot water.
Give the shower floor a final rinse after the residue drains.
Friday, March 9, 2012
FHA Drops Upfront Mortgage Insurance Premium To 0.01% For Qualified Borrowers
The FHA is making more changes to its flagship FHA Streamline Refinance program.
Beginning mid-June 2012, certain current, FHA-backed homeowners will be able to refinance their existing FHA mortgage into a new one, without having to pay the government-backed group's new, costly mortgage insurance premium schedule.
Earlier this week, the FHA rolled out its new MIP schedule.
Beginning April 9, 2012, new FHA mortgages are subject to a 1.75% upfront mortgage insurance premium (UFMIP) and an annual mortgage insurance premium of up to 1.25% for loan sizes up to, and including, $625,500; or 1.60% for loan sizes exceeding $625,500.
Upfront MIP is typically added to the loan size as a lump sum. Annual MIP is paid via 12 monthly installments. Both add to the long-term costs of homeownership.
However, the FHA's new MIP schedules will not apply to all FHA-backed homeowners equally. Homeowners whose FHA mortgages were endorsed prior to June 1, 2009 will benefit from a different, less costly MIP schedule.
For these homeowners in search of a streamline, the MIP schedule is as follows :
- Upfront MIP : 0.01% of the loan size
- Annual MIP : 0.55% of the loan size, with no adjuster for loan sizes over $625,500
The new schedule is detailed in FHA Mortgagee Letter 12-04 and it lowers the cost of FHA Streamline Refinancing for long-time, FHA-backed households in WA and nationwide to almost nothing.
As a real-life example, an FHA-backed homeowner whose $100,000 mortgage dates to 2008 could refinance via the FHA Streamline Refinance program and pay just $10 in upfront MIP, with a corresponding annual MIP payment of just $550, or $45.83 monthly.
By comparison, every other FHA-backed homeowner with a $100,000 mortgage pays $1,750 in UFMIP and as much as $1,600 in annual MIP.
The new streamline refinance MIP schedule is in effect for FHA mortgage applications with case numbers assigned on, or after, June 11, 2012. It is not available for loan applications made prior to that date.
There are lots of dates and deadlines in the FHA's new streamline program. If you're too early -- or too late -- you could miss your optimal refinance window. Talk with your loan officer, therefore, and put a plan in place. You'll be glad to be prepared.
Thursday, March 8, 2012
Mortgage Rates Expected To Rise On A Strong Job Report
With home affordability at an all-time high, buoyed by the lowest mortgage rates ever, it's been a terrific time to buy or refinance a home using a mortgage.
The good times may not last, though, so today marks an ideal time to lock a mortgage rate. Friday brings risk. Here's why.
Since 2010, weak economic conditions have been a primary catalyst for low mortgage rates in WA. Over the last 12 months, though, manufacturing output has been rising, consumer spending has been climbing, and business investment has increasing.
In other words, the economy is improving. However, it's the jobs market that's believed to be the economic recovery keystone. When jobs come back, analysts say, so does the economy.
Assuming that's true, a recovery may already be well underway.
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the U.S. jobs market has grown for 16 straight months now, adding 2.5 million net new jobs along the way. It's one reason why the February jobs report matters so much to housing.
Rate shoppers would do well to pay attention.
Friday, at 8:30 AM ET, the government will release its Non-Farm Payrolls report for February. Wall Street expects the report to show 210,000 new jobs were created in February, a figure slightly higher than the rolling, 6-month average for job growth. This would be a positive economic indicator.
If the analysts are correct, mortgage rates are likely to rise on the news, harming home affordability.
Furthermore, affordability could be harmed by a lot if the number of net new jobs created exceeds the 210,000 tally expected. It's not a far-fetched scenario. Wall Street's "whispers" put the actual jobs figure somewhere between 250,000-300,000. A reading lije this would cause mortgage rates to spike and would add money to a prospective monthly mortgage payment.
If the idea of rising mortgage rates makes you nervous, consider taking your nerves out of the equation. Call your loan officer today. Lock your rate ahead of Friday's Non-Farm Payrolls release.
Wednesday, March 7, 2012
Are You Wasting $471 Per Month On Your Mortgage?
According to Freddie Mac's weekly mortgage rate survey, for 13 straight weeks, the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage has held below 4.000% for mortgage applicants willing to pay up to 0.8 discount points plus a full set of closing costs.
These are the lowest mortgage rates in history and now -- with a bevy of loan programs for the nation's 11 million "underwater homeowners" including HARP, the FHA Streamline Refinance, and the VA IRRRL -- millions of U.S. homeowners can exploit the current mortgage rate environment.
In this 4-minute clip from NBC's The Today Show, you'll learn about today's mortgage market and your refinancing opportunities in WA.
The video begins by telling us that 14 million credit-worthy Americans have yet to refinance their respective mortgages, and are leaving an average of $471 in "wasted savings" on the table each month which adds up to more than $5,600 annually.
That's a big number.
Some of the video's other key points include :
- Refinancing is "worth the hassle" when mortgage rates are as low as they are today
- The best rates are reserved for homeowners with the highest credit scores
- Comparison shop -- your current mortgage lender may not offer you the best rates
Furthermore, the video reveals the characteristics of the homeowner type most likely to benefit from a refinance. These traits include having with 20% equity in the home; have plans to live in the home for at least the next 36 months; carrying a current mortgage rate of 5 percent or higher.
It should also be added that, with a zero-closing-cost or low-closing-cost mortgage, even a small reduction in your mortgage rate can make a refinance worthwhile.
Mortgage rates are low but can't stay low forever. If you haven't participated in the Refi Boom, talk with a loan officer and review your mortgage options. You may be able to save hundreds of dollars per month with just modest closing costs.
Tuesday, March 6, 2012
Home Affordability Reaches An All-Time High
Home affordability moved higher last quarter, boosted by the lowest mortgage rates in history, a rise in median income, and slow-to-recover home prices throughout WA and the country.
According to the National Association of Home Builders, the quarterly Home Opportunity Index read 75.9 in 2011's fourth quarter. More than 3 in 4 homes sold between October-December 2011, in other words, were affordable to households earning the national median income of $64,200.
Never in recorded history have U.S. homes been as affordable on a national level. Even on a regional and local level, affordability soared.
Affordability was highest in the Midwest; 7 of the 10 most affordable markets nationwide were in the nation's heartland.
The Top 5 most affordable U.S. cities in Q4 2011 were:
- Kokomo, IN (99.2% home affordability)
- Fairbanks, AK (97.5% home affordability)
- Cumberland, WV (96.9% home affordability)
- Lima, OH (96.0% home affordability)
- Rockford, IL (95.5% home affordability)
These are each considered "small markets". The most affordable "major market" was the Youngstown, Ohio area, where 95.1% of homes sold were affordable to households earning the area's local median income.
Not surprisingly, America's "least affordable cities" were regionally-concentrated, too, with 7 of the 10 least affordable markets located in either California or Texas.
San Francisco (#3), Santa Ana (#4), and Los Angeles (#5) led for the Golden State but, for the 15th consecutive quarter, the New York metropolitan area took "Least Affordable Market" honors.
Just 29 percent of homes in and around New York City were affordable to households earning the area's median income last quarter. It's a large jump from the quarter prior during which 23 percent of homes were affordable.
The rankings for all 225 metro areas are available for download on the NAHB website.
Monday, March 5, 2012
How To Keep A Stainless Steel Product Shining
With their sleek, modern look, over the past 10 years, stainless steel appliances have move from "hot trend" to commonplace.
However, as any Spokane homeowner with stainless steel appliances will tell you, to keep a stainless steel surface free from marks, drips and fingerprints can be a futile exercise. Streaks and smudges will happen -- they can't be avoiding.
There are tricks, however, for keeping your stainless "shining". You'll need a microfiber cloth and a small bowl, plus some dish detergent, and some WD-40 or furniture polish.
First, start with a single teaspoon of dish detergent in a quart of hot tap water. Using the microfiber cloth to avoid scratching the appliance's surface, rub the mixture firmly in the direction of the steel's grain.
Rinse the surface with clean, hot water and dry it immediately.
If the smudge remains, as a second attempt, spray a little WD-40 or furniture polish on the surface of the stainless steel appliance and buff the mark away using the microfiber cloth.
Then, if the smudge still remains, apply a small amount of rubbing alcohol to the appliance surface and -- again with the microfiber cloth -- rub in the direction of the grain. This will remove the mark, but it will also dull the stainless steel's shine.
Therefore, to restore the appliance's luster, use a small amount of WD-40 or furniture polish, or buff the appliance with a drop of mineral oil.
You may also use a commercial stainless steel cleaner to clean your home's appliance and these products work well. However, they're often thick with chemicals and can be more expensive than one of the do-it-yourself solutions presented above.
Sometimes, though, it takes a specialty product to get the job done.
Friday, March 2, 2012
FHA To Raise Mortgage Insurance Premiums April 1, 2012
Beginning April 1, 2012, the FHA is once again raising mortgage insurance premiums (MIP) on its newly-insured borrowers throughout Spokane and the country.
It's the FHA's fourth such increase in the last two years.
Beginning April 1, 2012, upfront mortgage insurance premiums will be higher by 75 basis points, or 0.75%; and annual mortgage insurance premiums will be higher by 10 basis points per year, or 0.10%.
For borrowers with a loan size of $200,000, the new MIP will add $1,500 in one-time loan costs, plus an on-going, annual $200 increase in total mortgage insurance premiums paid.
All new FHA loans are subject to the increase -- purchases and refinances.
The FHA is increasing its mortgage insurance premiums because, as an entity, the FHA is insuring a much larger percentage of the U.S. mortgage market than ever before.
In 2006, the FHA insured 2 percent of all purchase-money mortgages. In 2011, that figure jumped to 18 percent. Unfortunately, as the FHA has insured more loans, it's number of loans in default have climbed, too, forcing the FHA to boost its reserves.
Beginning April 1, 2012, the new FHA annual mortgage insurance premium schedule is as follows :
- 15-year loan term, loan-to-value > 90% : 0.60% MIP per year
- 15-year loan term, loan-to-value <= 90% : 0.35% MIP per year
- 30-year loan term, loan-to-value > 95% : 1.25% MIP per year
- 30-year loan term, loan-to-value <= 95% : 1.20% MIP per year
In order to calculate what your FHA annual mortgage insurance premium would be on a monthly basis, multiply your beginning loan size by your insurance premium in the chart above, then divide by 12.
In addition, for loans over $625,500, beginning June 1, 2012, there is an additional 25 basis point increase to annual MIP.
To avoid paying the new FHA mortgage insurance premiums, start your FHA mortgage application today. Existing FHA-insured homeowners will not be affected by the change.
Mortgage insurance premiums will not rise for loans already made.
Thursday, March 1, 2012
Case-Shiller Index Shows Home Values Rising In Detroit
Standard & Poors released its December 2011 Case-Shiller Index this week. The report is the most widely-cited, private-sector metric for the housing market. The index aims to measures change in home prices from month-to-month, and from year-to-year, in select U.S. cities and nationwide.
According to the report, between November and December 2011, home values fell within 18 of the Case-Shiller Index's 20 tracked markets; and through the 12 months leading up to December 2011, 19 of 20 tracked markets fell.
Only Detroit posted year-over-year gains, adding 0.50% since December 2010.
Now, these statistics may look dire for the housing market, but it's important to remember that the Case-Shiller Index -- though widely-cited -- remains a flawed statistic for everyday buyers and sellers in Spokane. Rather, the monthly Case-Shiller Index is more appropriately applied by policy-makers and economists to macro-economic issues than by you and me for buy-or-sell decisions..
There are three ways in which Case-Shiller is flawed -- each tied to the way by which Case-Shiller Index is calculated.
The first reason why the Case-Shiller Index is flawed is that, although it's purported to be a "national" housing index, the index tracks just 20 cities nationwide. The United States, by comparison, houses more than 3,100 municipalities. The Case-Shiller Index is not a representative sample of the U.S. housing market.
And then, even within its tracked markets, Case-Shiller fails provide sufficient details to be useful.
Within each Case-Shiller Index city, there are innumerable "local markets", each with its own local economy. When home values are shown to be falling in Phoenix, for example, that doesn't mean that values are falling everywhere in Phoenix -- only in the aggregate. There are multiple neighborhoods in Phoenix in which home values improved in December.
The Case-Shiller Index doesn't capture that.
As another reason to ignore the Case-Shiller Index, note that the Case-Shiller Index only includes home sale data for single-family, detached homes -- sales of condominiums and of multi-unit homes are specifically excluded. In some markets -- Chicago and New York, for example -- sales of these types can represent a large percentage of overall monthly sales.
Lastly, as a third reason to reduce the Case-Shiller Index's significance -- it's "old".
The Case-Shiller Index is published on a 60-day delay and includes sales contracts from even 60 days prior to that. In other words, the data used in this week's Case-Shiller Index dates back to October 2011.
Data from 5 months ago is of little relevance to buyers in WA today. Up-to-date and current information is what matters.
For actionable, real-time housing market data, therefore, look past the Case-Shiller Index. Look to your local real estate agent instead.
Wednesday, February 29, 2012
Pending Home Sales Rise To 22-Month High
The housing market appears headed for a strong spring season.
After a brief setback in December, the Pending Home Sales Index resumed its climb in January, posting a 2 percent gain over the month prior.
The data puts pressure on Spokane home buyers. This is because a "pending home" is a home that's under contract to sell, but has not yet sold. It's tracked by the National Association of REALTORS® and, among all housing statistics, it's the only one that's "forward-looking".
The Pending Home Sales Index is important to home buyers throughout WA because 80% of homes under contract to sell close within 60 days of contract. In this way, the Pending Home Sales Index forecasts the housing market 1-2 months into the future.
This is very different from how NAR's Existing Home Sales report works; or, how the Census Bureau's New Home Sales report works. These two metrics tell us what's already happened in housing.
By contrast, the Pending Home Sales Index tells us what's coming next.
January's Pending Home Sales Index reading lifts the monthly metric to its highest level since April 2010 -- the month during which the 2010 federal home buyer tax credit expired -- foreshadowing a strong housing market through March and April 2012, at least.
This should not be news, of course. The nation's home builders have said "foot traffic" is rising and home supplies are scarce nationwide. The only wild-card for housing is the high contract cancellation rate.
As compared to last January when just 9 percent of home purchase contracts "failed", this January saw 33 percent of contracts fail. High failure rates undermine the Pending Home Sales Index's viability as a forward-looking housing market indicator.
Despite contract failures, though, the combination of low mortgage rates and low home prices is enticing to today's home buyers. Expect home sales to climb in the coming weeks which will lead to a strong spring season for housing.
Tuesday, February 28, 2012
New Home Supply Falls To 5.6 Months
The new construction market rolls on.
As foreshadowed by February's Homebuilder Confidence survey, which rose to a 4-year high, the Census Bureau reports new homes are selling more quickly than builders have built them, lowering the national "home supply" to levels not seen since 2006.
A "new home" is a home that is considered new construction and, at the current pace of sales, the nation's entire new home inventory of 151,000 homes would be sold in 5.6 months.
Anything less than 6.0-month supply is thought to connote a "sellers' market".
321,000 new homes were sold last month on a seasonally-adjusted, annualized basis. 7 of 10 new homes sold for less than $300,000.
The South Region continues to account for the majority of new construction sales, posting a 59% market share in January. South Region sales were up 9 percent as compared to December. The other 3 regions turned in mixed results.
- Northeast Region : +11.1% from December 2011
- Midwest Region : -24.5% from December 2011
- West Region : -10.6% from December 2011
Unfortunately, the Census Bureau's New Home Sales data could be wrong.
Although New Home Sales were said to fall by about one percent nationally from December to January, the government's monthly report was footnoted with a ±16.6% margin of error. This means that the actual New Home Sales reading may have been as high as +15%, or as low as -18%.
Because the range of values includes positive and negative values, the January New Home Sales data is of "zero confidence". However, that's not to say that it should be ignored. The aforementioned homebuilder confidence survey shows builders optimistic for the future, and a bevy of home sale data since October 2011 suggests a market in recovery.
If you're in the market for new construction in Spokane , therefore, consider going into contract sooner rather than later. Home prices remain low and mortgage rates do, too -- a terrific combination for today's buyers.
In a few months, the landscape may look different.
Monday, February 27, 2012
50 Creative Reuse Ideas For Your Home And Garden
"Creative Reuse" is the transformation of everyday items that would otherwise be thrown out into something useful. It's where being "green" and the arts can converge.
In every home, there are literally hundreds of items that be reused and repurposed, including such disparate items as chipped coffee mugs, step ladders, and bubble wrap. After transformation, for example, these three items can become a simple storage container, a plant stand, and greenhouse insulation, respectively.
Real Simple made a list of "50 All-Time Favorite New Uses For Old Things". It's a list of Creative Reuse projects from which you're bound to find inspiration.
For example, the magazine suggests using an old Twister Mat as a children's party tablecloth; or an old eyeglasses case to hold nail care essentials such as clippers, files and scissors.
Some of Real Simple's other top ideas included :
- Distinguish your glass from other party-goers' glasses at a party with peel-on/peel-off window decals
- Protect counter tops from hot dishes with and old mousepad-turned-trivet
- Eliminate travel bulk. Carry non-prescription medicines in an old contact lens case.
- Use Play-Doh as a candle or sparkler holder
- Pour pancake batter into an old ketchup bottle for no-mess cooking
With Creative Reuse, you're limited only by your imagination and, even then, Google can be a terrific project resource.
Check the Real Simple list for 50 great ideas.
Friday, February 24, 2012
Federal Reserve Wary Of European Spillover
The Federal Reserve has released the minutes from its 2-day meeting January 24-25, 2012.
The Fed Minutes is a summary of the conversations and debates that shape our nation's monetary policy. It receives less attention than the Fed's more well-known, post-meeting press release, but the Fed Minutes is every bit as important.
To rate shoppers in Spokane , for example, the Fed Minutes can provide clues about whether mortgage rates will generally rise or fall in the coming months.
The most recent Fed Minutes reveals a central bank divided on the future of the U.S. economy. The minutes show some Fed members in favor of new, immediate market stimulus. It shows others in favor of terminating the stimulus that's already in place.
The Fed's debate centered on the topic of inflation, and the pressures that a prolonged, near-zero Fed Funds Rate can place on the economy. Ultimately, the Fed did nothing, neither adding new stimulus nor removing that which is already in place.
It did, however, communicate a plan to keep the benchmark Fed Funds Rate rate "exceptionally low" through late-2014, at least.
The Fed Minutes included the following notes, too :
- On employment : Unemployment rates will "decline only gradually" in 2012
- On housing : The market is "held down" by the "large overhang" of distressed homes
- On inflation : Consumer prices have remained "flat"
Furthermore, the Fed expressed optimism regarding European financial markets, noting that market sentiment "appeared to brighten a bit". Nonetheless, "spillovers" remain possible and the threat continues to weigh on markets.
Mortgage rates are slightly worse since the Fed Minutes were released.
The Federal Reserve's next scheduled meeting is March 13, 2012 -- its second of 8 scheduled meetings this year.
Thursday, February 23, 2012
Existing Home Sales Climb To A 20-Month Record
January's home resales moved to a 20-month high -- additional evidence that the nation's housing recovery is underway.
According to the National Association of REALTORS®, the January 2012 Existing Home Sales showed 4.57 million units sold last month on a seasonally-adjusted, annualized basis -- a 4 percent increase as compared to December's revised figures.
An "existing home" is one that's been previously occupied and cannot be categorized as new construction.
Beyond the headline numbers, though, there was plenty about which for today's Spokane home sellers to get excited. Demand for homes remains strong, foreshadowing higher home prices through 2012.
First, the national housing stock is at a 5-year low.
In January, the number of homes for sale nationwide slipped to 2.31 million, the smallest home inventory since February 2007, and a 21% decrease from just one year ago.
Falling home supply amid constant home demand leads home prices higher. At the current pace of sales, today's complete home inventory would "sell out" in 6.1 months.
Analysts say that a 6-month supply is a market in balance. Anything less is Bull Market territory.
Second, the National Association of REALTORS® says that one-third of all homes under contract "failed" last month. This means that many more buyers tried to buy, but couldn't for a number of reasons including mortgage denials; or, insurmountable home inspections issues; or, homes appraising for less than the contract price.
As contract failures subside, Existing Home Sales are expected to rise even faster.
And, lastly, first-time buyers continue to power the home resale market. In January, 33% of all sales were made to first-time buyers, up four points from last year. This statistic suggests that renters are moving into homeownership, an important component in a sustained housing market recovery.
Given high demand and shrinking supply, we should expect for home prices to rise in the coming months, if they haven't already. Thankfully, mortgage rates remain near all-time lows.
Low mortgage rates make homes more affordable.